When people talk about "the Moroccan stock market", they almost always mean the MASI. This single number summarises the apparent health of every listed share on the Casablanca Stock Exchange. Knowing how it is built changes how you read the numbers at the open and the close.

The Moroccan All Shares Index aggregates almost every company listed in Casablanca. Each constituent enters the calculation in proportion to its free-float market capitalisation — the value of the shares actually available for trading, excluding the blocks held by the state or by a reference shareholder. This avoids the distortion of a company with 95 % of its capital locked weighing as if all of it were in circulation.

The index is rebased periodically and is quoted in points. Its absolute level has no meaning; what matters is the variation between two dates.

A handful of heavy hitters dominate the composition. The big banks (Attijariwafa Bank, BCP, BMCE), Maroc Telecom, and a few cement and insurance names represent a large share of the total free-float cap. A 2 % move on Attijariwafa Bank moves the index far more than a 2 % move on a mid-cap.

That is why the MASI can be up while most names are down: a single heavy hitter having a good session is enough.

The MASI is a useful overall barometer, not a performance gauge for any specific portfolio. If you hold mostly mid-caps, your performance can diverge strongly from the MASI over short windows. A blue-chip-only portfolio, on the other hand, tends to track it tightly.

When you read "the MASI closed up 0.7 %", three follow-up questions help:

What was the contribution of the banks and Maroc Telecom today?

How many constituents were up versus down (the breadth)?

What volume traded on the session (low volume tempers any conclusion)?

The MASI 20 captures the twenty most liquid names. The MADEX filters for liquidity above a minimum threshold. For a retail investor, the headline MASI is the default reference; the variants matter mostly to institutional managers calibrating against a target exposure.

Checking the MASI once a day, alongside breadth and volume, is enough for the vast majority of long-term investment decisions. Watching it minute by minute adds nothing unless you are day-trading — which is neither Nommo's audience nor its mission.

What is the MASI index? Composition, weighting, and how to read it

Understanding a company without reading its accounts is driving with your eyes closed. The good news: three documents are enough to form a solid first opinion. On the Casablanca exchange they are called the balance sheet, the CPC, and the ETIC.

The balance sheet: snapshot of net worth at a point in time

The balance sheet answers a simple question: what does the company own, and what does it owe? The asset column lists resources (cash, receivables, fixed assets). The liability column lists how those resources are funded (equity, financial debt, operating liabilities).

Three lines to prioritise: equity (the solidity gauge), net financial debt (debt minus available cash), and working-capital requirement (customer receivables minus supplier payables).

The Compte de Produits et Charges (CPC) tells the operating story over one fiscal year. It starts with revenue, deducts operating costs (purchases, wages, depreciation), gives the operating result, layers in financial and non-recurring items, deducts tax, and lands on net income.

A well-read CPC gives two key pieces of information: operating profitability (operating result over revenue) and net profitability (net income over revenue). Benchmark these ratios against the sector average rather than reading them in isolation.

The ETIC: the notes that explain the rest

The État des Informations Complémentaires (ETIC) is the most neglected and often the most useful document. It details the accounting methods chosen, off-balance-sheet commitments, ongoing litigation, executive remuneration, and related-party transactions. That is where the surprises live.

A serious investor spends at least fifteen minutes on the ETIC of a company they consider buying. Most do not — it is a free competitive edge.

Beyond the numbers: the management report

The accounts tell the past story. The management report that accompanies them tells the story as management sees it and signals what comes next. Read it for the stated strategy, the tone (cautious, optimistic, under pressure), and the listed risk factors.

The first read is always the hardest. After a few cycles you develop reflexes: spot drifting leverage, compressing margins, a change in accounting method. Consistency beats sophistication.

Reading Moroccan financial statements: balance sheet, P&L, notes

Technical analysis carries a bad reputation: too many self-styled "experts" predicting the future with esoteric indicators. Yet four simple concepts are enough to understand the structure of a stock chart — and those four are useful regardless of how much time you spend on fundamental analysis.

A rising trend reads visually: the price prints higher highs and higher lows. A falling trend is the reverse. A trendless market drifts in a horizontal channel, oscillating around the same level.

Rule of thumb: do not fight the prevailing trend on short horizons. Over the long run, trend matters less than the underlying business quality.

A support is a price level where declines tend to stall and buyers regain control. A resistance is the opposite: a level where rises stall and sellers return. The more times a level has been tested and held, the more credible it is.

When a support breaks, it often becomes a resistance in the next move — and vice versa. This "polarity" behaviour is one of the most reliable patterns visible on charts.

Trade volume indicates the conviction behind a move. A price rise on heavy volume carries more weight than a move on thin volume. A break of support or resistance is only credible when accompanied by a volume spike — otherwise it is likely a false signal.

Rather than simple bars, most charts use candlesticks: a body (rectangle) between open and close, plus two wicks (thin lines) marking the session's high and low. Green or light = up, red or dark = down. The shape tells the story of the session: a long green body with short wicks signals strong buying conviction.

No chart reading replaces fundamental analysis. Charts help with entry / exit timing; deciding to invest in a company demands reading its accounts. Reversing that order is the classic mistake.

A beginner can start by observing the six-month trend, marking two or three key supports / resistances, and watching volume around each break. Those three pieces of information already filter out 80 % of mistimed buys.

Reading a stock chart: trends, supports, resistances

Keeping your money in a current account has a hidden cost: every year inflation is positive, your purchasing power shrinks. If prices rise 4 % and your savings earn nothing, you are 4 % poorer twelve months later — without having spent anything.

Inflation is measured by the consumer price index (CPI) published by HCP. Over recent years in Morocco, levels have moved between moderate phases (around 1–2 %) and higher phases driven by global conditions (energy, food). Over ten years, even an average 2 % inflation rate cuts the purchasing power of an unremunerated deposit by roughly 18 %.

Three broad instrument families help offset inflation to varying degrees: equities, bonds, and real assets (property, precious metals). For a Moroccan retail investor working through the Casablanca exchange and OPCVMs, two of those building blocks are the most accessible.

Over long horizons, equities have historically produced a return above inflation. A profitable company can, at least partly, pass cost increases through to selling prices. That is why a diversified equity portfolio remains a structural inflation hedge, provided you keep the long horizon.

In the short term, equities do not mechanically protect against inflation. A rapid energy-price spike can compress margins and weigh on prices for several months. The hedge plays out over 5–10 years, not over 6 months.

Fixed-coupon bonds do not protect against inflation: the coupon is locked in, and the nominal value erodes in real terms if prices rise. A money-market OPCVM whose yield tracks short-term rates can, however, partially reflect a hike in the policy rate in response to inflation.

Inflation-indexed bonds exist in some markets but remain hard for Moroccan retail investors to access. So the MASI and diversified equity OPCVMs remain, in practice, the most usable shield.

The cash-versus-equity trade-off is not binary. Keeping a precautionary reserve worth 3–6 months of expenses on a liquid account is still sensible — inflation does eat at it, but liquidity comes first. Anything above that reserve and not earmarked for spending in the next 5 years has a place in productive assets.

Calculating the real return on your savings once a year (nominal return minus inflation) is a useful exercise. If most of your wealth has produced a negative real return for several years running, that is a signal to rebalance toward growth assets — though not necessarily by moving everything at once.

markets-analysis

What is the MASI index? Composition, weighting, and how to read it

Reading Moroccan financial statements: balance sheet, P&L, notes

Reading a stock chart: trends, supports, resistances

Inflation, MASI and purchasing power: protecting savings in Morocco